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Trade Dwar

About this site

What is Trade Dwar, what do you get, and how does it work?

What this site is

Trade Dwar tests one simple idea on Indian (NSE) stocks: when a company's quarterly results are extremely good or extremely bad, does the price move in a predictable way that day? Every trade is planned before the market opens, scored on NSE's official prices, and shown here, wins and losses alike. Think of it as an open notebook of a research test, on paper.

What you get

  • The plan, before the market opensWhich stock, BUY or SHORT, and exactly when to enter (09:00–09:08) and exit (15:00–15:30). Saved before 09:00 and never changed.
  • The result, every eveningProfit or loss in rupees and %, after real trading costs, with the ₹40 broker fee shown separately. Scored on NSE's official prices.
  • A chart for every tradeA TradingView price chart of the whole day, with the buy and sell points marked, so you can see what happened.
  • An honest track recordTotals, win rate, best and worst trades, every trade listed. Losses are shown as clearly as wins.
  • “What if I followed it?”Pick an amount and see what following every recorded trade would have made or lost, including the worst dip.
  • Plain-language learningShort, jargon-free explanations of shorting, hedging, costs and charts, for people who've never traded.

How it works, in 3 steps

  1. 08:25 IST

    Plan saved

    On mornings after quarterly results, the plan is saved before the market opens.

  2. 09:00 – 15:30 IST

    Paper trade

    The trades run on paper: in at the official open, out at the official close.

  3. ≈ 20:15 IST

    Scored and shown

    NSE publishes its official prices; every trade is scored and appears here.

NSE & BSE market hours (equity, IST, Mon–Fri)

  • Pre-open 09:00–09:15
  • Intraday trading 09:15–15:30
  • Closing-price window 15:00–15:30
  • Broker auto square-off ≈15:15–15:25
  • Block deals 08:45–09:00, 14:05–14:20

  1. 08:45 – 09:00

    Block deal window

    Special

    Only large negotiated deals (₹25 crore or more). Ordinary traders can't trade yet.

  2. 09:00 – 09:08

    Pre-open: place orders

    Pre-open

    Place, change or cancel orders. Nothing trades yet. This project's plan enters here.

  3. 09:08 – 09:12

    Pre-open: matching

    Pre-open

    Orders are matched at one price, the official opening price. No new orders.

  4. 09:12 – 09:15

    Buffer

    Pre-open

    A short pause before normal trading starts.

  5. 09:15 – 15:30

    Normal market

    Intraday trading

    Buy and sell at any time at live prices. All intraday buying and selling happens here.

  6. 15:30 – 15:40

    Closing price calculated

    Closed for trading

    No trading. The exchange works out the official closing price.

  7. 15:40 – 16:00

    Post-close session

    Special

    Orders only at the official closing price (mostly for delivery, not intraday).

14:05–14:20 · Afternoon block deal window

Large negotiated deals only.

15:00–15:30 · Closing-price window

NSE's official close is the volume-weighted average price of these 30 minutes. This project's exit is spread across it.

15:15–15:25 · Broker auto square-off

Most brokers automatically close intraday (MIS) positions around now. The exact time depends on the broker.

Why this matters here: in India a short sale of shares must be closed the same day, so a real follower would trade intraday (MIS). Brokers usually auto-close those positions around 15:15–15:25, before this project's exit window (15:00–15:30) ends. Real results could therefore differ from the paper record. The market is also shut on weekends and exchange holidays, and on Diwali there is a short special "Muhurat" session. Timings can change: confirm on nseindia.com or bseindia.com.

The idea, in plain words

The idea

Very good results → SHORT

After a huge profit jump the price often opens far higher. In past data these stocks then did slightly worse than the market for the rest of the day.

Very bad results → BUY

After a profit collapse the price often opens far lower. In past data these stocks then did slightly better than the market for the rest of the day.

The rules

  1. Which stocksThe 476 most-traded NSE stocks, the morning after their quarterly results, only when the profit change is extreme.
  2. How much₹1,00,000 per trade, with an equal and opposite Nifty 50 position.
  3. Enter09:00–09:08: NSE's opening auction, at the official open price.
  4. Exit15:00–15:30, in small parts: the official close (last-30-minute average).
How a trade is scoredA real example from 12 Nov 2026

SHORT CUPID: it opened at ₹360.00 and closed at ₹384.80 (+6.9%), while the Nifty rose 0.06%. Measured as log returns (the scoring standard: +6.66% and +0.06%), CUPID beat the market by 6.60%, against the short. On ₹1,00,000 that's −₹6,598, minus ₹125 costs = −₹6,723 (−₹6,763 after the ₹40 broker fee). The other three trades that day made money; together +₹1,855. One day proves nothing either way.

What we promise, and what we don't
  • Plans saved before the open
  • Scored on NSE's official prices
  • Losers shown like winners
  • Live and backtest never mixed
  • No promise of profit
  • Paper prices may differ from real fills
  • Nothing about any single trade
  • No advice of any kind
Glossary12 terms
Paper trade
Recorded and scored as if it happened, with no real money.
▲ BUY
Buy at the open, sell at the close. Wins if the stock beats the market.
▼ SHORT
Sell first at the open, buy back at the close. Wins if the stock lags the market.
Opening auction
NSE's 09:00–09:08 session that sets the official open price.
Official close
The average price of 15:00–15:30, hence the exit in small parts.
Hedge
An opposite Nifty 50 position that cancels the whole market's move.
Costs
Taxes, exchange fees, spread and price impact, taken off every trade.
Broker fee
A flat ₹40 per trade, shown separately.
Backtest
The same rules simulated on past data. Usually too optimistic.
Live record
Trades planned before the open and scored after, from 12 Nov 2026.
Drawdown
The biggest drop from a high point of the running total.
Candlestick
One bar per time slice: the body runs open→close (green up, red down), the thin wicks show the high and low.

Questions people ask

Is this real money?

No. Every trade is a paper trade: written down before the market opens and scored afterwards on NSE's official prices. No broker connection.

Why are there no trades on most days?

It only acts the morning after a company's quarterly results, and only on extreme news. Outside results season (roughly Jan–Feb, Apr–May, Jul–Aug, Oct–Nov) there can be weeks with no trades.

How can you profit when a stock falls?

By short-selling: sell first at the open, buy back at the close. If the price fell, you buy back cheaper and keep the difference. If it rose, you lose.

So do you make money whether the price goes up or down?

No. BUY lets you profit if the stock does better than the market; SHORT lets you profit if it does worse. Either way you only make money if the direction call is right, and lose if it's wrong. On 12 Nov 2026 CUPID was shorted, rose instead, and lost ₹6,723. Options don't change this: a position that gains from a big move either way costs a premium and loses when the move is small.

Why the Nifty hedge?

Each trade has an equal and opposite Nifty 50 position. If the whole market moves, the two cancel, so only the stock-versus-market move counts. That's what the method predicts.

Is it profitable?

Not proven. The recent backtest (Apr 2025 – Oct 2026) was positive after costs; the longer 2019–2026 backtest shows the effect before costs only; the live record is a few days old. About 400 live trades are needed.

Next: see today's trades, the results, or the separate experiments.